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Episode 84: NASA after the Shuttle. SLS and The Gateway

By Gurbir Dated: April 5, 2019 Leave a Comment

David Baker

David Baker has been involved with the USA since childhood. First attending a US school in England and then studying in the US under a scholarship program sponsored by Senator Clinton P Anderson. He returned to the USA and worked for NASA on various programs from Gemini to the SpaceShuttle. He was present in mission control in 1970 and witnessed the drama of Apollo 13 first hand.

He joined the British Interplanetary Society in 1965, published his first article in the society’s journal Spaceflight in 1969 and since 2011 has been the editor of that very journal -Spaceflight. To date, he has published a remarkable 110 books by the close of 2018 with a few more in the pipeline for 2019 to mark the fiftieth anniversary of Apollo 11.

(Note – following questions on the veracity of his Phd, David Baker resigned from the BIS as the editor of Spaceflight on 25th March 2021.)

In this episode, we talk about the current status of the space programme in the US and the changing role of NASA.

  • The USA has not been able to launch US astronauts from the USA since the retirement of the Space Shuttle in 2011. NASA found itself in a similar position between 1975 (Apollo Soyuz Test programme) and the first Space Shuttle in 1981.
  • Why NASA dropped the Ares programme and why its replacement, the Space Launch System (SLS) schedule remains unclear. The first SLS mission, uncrewed – Exploration Mission-1 (EM-1) by 2020 and the second crewed mission, Exploration Mission-2 (EM-2) by 2023.
  • The successor to the ISS, the “Gateway” is an international project for a space station in lunar orbit. Only about a third of the size of the ISS and it will have fewer international partners.
  • The gateway is seen by Russia as an American lead programme. Will Russia participate with the gateway or consider a joint Russia/China human spaceflight programme?
  • China/USA cooperation in space has been prohibited ny US law. What prospects that this will change?
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Episode 83: India’s Human Spaceflight Programme with R Umamaheswaran

By Gurbir Dated: January 18, 2019 Leave a Comment

R. Umamaheshwaren. Credit: Author

R Umamaheswaren was born in 1963, the same year that India initiated its space programme with the first-ever launch of a rocket into space from Indian soil. He is currently serving as the Scientific Secretary to the chairman. This was recorded at the IAC2018 (so a little noisy background). Audio and video available below.

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He first joined ISRO in 1987 as an avionics and communications engineer at the VSSC and has held several posts including

  • Deputy director for the GSLV launch vehicle
  • Mission director for 3 GSLV launches
  • GSLV Mk3 to launch in November 2018 with high throughput satellites GSAT-29 to support the Digital India programme. A total of 100GBPS will be available from space once the other two satellites  are launched.
  • Dr. Lalitambika. Directeor of ISRO Human Spaceflight Programe. Credit TEDX
  • Pad Abort Test. Credit ISRO
  • Pad Abort Test. Credit ISRO
  • Pad Abort Test. Credit ISRO

Fundamental system and engineering challenges have been addressed and  India is ready for human spaceflight. ISRO conducted a Pad Abort Test on 5th July 2018 – Youtube video here. Currently, the roadmap looks like this

  • Crew selection – discussion underway.
  • Two uncrewed missions will take place – no animals required. Sensors and instruments will be sufficient.
  • Astronaut training – under discussion. Astronaut training support will be required from a third country – yet to be announced. 
  • Not necessary for potential applicants to be test pilots.
  • Prospect for a female to be part of the first crew is “very high”.
  • First uncrewed flight start in late 2020.
  • A longer vision for Human Spaceflight –  priorities not yet defined.

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India – Space or Poverty. What should come first?

By Gurbir Dated: January 13, 2019 2 Comments

If a country has a space programme, does that help to reduce its national poverty or increase it? On the face of it, it appears that a country that spends money on building satellites to explore the solar system or beyond will have less to spend on poverty relief. This argument ignores the economic and the societal transformative potential inherent in modern technologies of which space is just one.

If developing nations did not develop their own infrastructure for modern technologies they would either have to live without their benefits (internet access, mobile telephony, satellite television) or be at the mercy of a third party supplier forced to pay predetermined commercial rates and having little or no say on availability or quality of the service.

Acquiring accurate figures for how much nations spend on their space programmes or even the cost of individual missions is problematic. Definition of poverty vary in countries, organisation and over time so measuring and comparing global poverty levels is not straight forward. National space programmes have objectives that are intertwined with national security, geopolitical and economic aspirations.

Essential contributions provided by resources outside the jurisdiction of the Space Programme are not usually included in the costing. Physical security may be provided by the army, the navy is frequently used to assist with capsule recovery after splash-down and educational institutions contributed payload design and development.

Eight of the world’s largest economies. Credit World Economic Forum

Since 2001, as part of the emerging BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), China and India have been regarded as “emerging market”. Today as the world’s 2nd largest economy, China has surely completed the metamorphosis and has now “emerged”.

India, as the 6th largest economy should also now be seen as a developed nation, not as a developing one. India has transitioned from a recipient of international aid to a regional net donor. Despite reports to the contrary, the government of India no longer receives aid from the United Kingdom.

During two years 2018/19 and 2019/20 the UK government’s Department for International Development (DfID) will invest £98m in Indian enterprises to help develop new markets. This “will also help create jobs for UK businesses, and generate a return for the UK.“.

The Department for International Development acknowledges that “India invests more in the UK than in the rest of the EU combined” (downloadable pdf) and recognises that UK’s targeted support in India will “generate a return for Britain by creating new markets for trade and investment”. Thus, UK’s financial contribution to projects in India should not be seen as aid but as a commercial investment.

Besides as the USA, the world’s leading economy and one with a mature space programme has illustrated, eradicating poverty is not a goal it has achieved. Throughout the period of the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo missions, the poverty level in the USA hovered between 10% and 15%.

The number in Poverty and Poverty Rate: 1959 to 2017 for the United States. Credit Soibangla

India’s annual budget for its space programme has been increasing. In 2018 it was $1.3 billion. This excluded the $1.4 billion for the Gaganyaan (Human Spaceflight) programme to be completed by 2022. Despite investing in its space programme since 1962, poverty in India has been on a consistent decline.

India Poverty rate since 1993 based on World Bank $1.99 PPP poverty line. Credit Pkhagah

National Space Programmes can have a reputation for being expensive but the actual investment represents a very small percentage of the national GDP. In 2018, the largest annual budget, around $20 billion, is that in the USA, representing just 0.4% of GDP. India’s annual budget of $1.3 billion is less than 0.1% of its GDP.

Space budget as a share of GDP for selected countries for 2008 and 2013. Credit OECD (pdf)

The international aid India receives has been declining since the beginning of the 21st century as its economy has grown. In parallel, what India gives out in aid has also grown. Regionally, India is now a net donor with commitments of $10 billion towards development projects in Africa, $1 billion toward rebuilding in Afghanistan and $825 million in students from developing nations to study in India.

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Heads of National Space Agencies plenary session – IAC2018. Bremen, Germany.

By Gurbir Dated: January 6, 2019 Leave a Comment

Heads of Space Agencies: Plenary Session IAC2018

This is my recording of the Heads of Space Agency plenary session on 1st October – the first day of the IAC2018. It was not recorded with the intention to publish online. However, here it is unedited – for anyone who may benefit from it.

In Attendance:

  • Dmitry Loskutov in place of Dmitry Rogozin – (Roscosmos)
  • Hiroshi Yamakawa – (JAXA)
  • Johann-Dietrich Woerner – (ESA)
  • Maggie Aderin-Pocock (Moderator – BBC)
  • Jim Bridenstine – (NASA)
  • K. Sivan – (ISRO)
  • Sylvain Laporte – Canadian Space Agency
  • ZHANG Kejian China National Space Administration

Some of my notes below – Timeline (mins:Sec)


04:50    Jan Woerner – ESA  
10:28    K Sivan – ISRO
15:16    Zang Kejian – CNSA (speaking via translator)

26 Launches since Jan 2018
Chang-e-4 Lunar rover before end of year (Relay sat already
launched)
5 More GNSS satellites before the end of year
Willing to collaborate internationally
Social, economic, climate change – support Asian – Asia and African
nations
China joint projects – Brazil, France, ESA, (Chang-e4 Sweden,
Germany, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia)
An announcement of opportunity 10kg payload available for
international partners on the Chang’e6 Sample return mission
CSS will be completed by 2022. Also, welcome international
cooperation on the CSS
Welcome international partners in its growing commercial space
market.
Established “Space Day” in China to encourage the younger generation
25:40 Hiroshi Yamakawa (JAXA)
Hayabusa 2 – Rover Minerva landed on Ryugu.  Lander Mascot (built
by DLR/CNES)
MMX Mission to Mars
Asia Specific Forum – 25th anniversary in Singapore
JAXA welcomes international partners.
The combined budget of all space agencies around the world. 42.5
Billion (21.5=NASA).
30:18 Dmitry Loskutov (Roscosmos)
35:05 Sylvain Laporte Canadian Space Agency

44:10 Jim Bridenstine (NASA)
Hope to get 10k attendance in Washington IAC2019
Lunar gateway – Back to the Moon to stay. Sustainable open architecture open to commercial and international partners. It will also serve as a deep space transport to Mars.

53:10 Q&A

1:18:26 End

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