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India – Space or Poverty. What should come first?

By Gurbir Dated: January 13, 2019 1 Comment

If a country has a space programme, does that help to reduce its national poverty or increase it? On the face of it, it appears that a country that spends money on building satellites to explore the solar system or beyond will have less to spend on poverty relief. This argument ignores the economic and the societal transformative potential inherent in modern technologies of which space is just one.

If developing nations did not develop their own infrastructure for modern technologies they would either have to live without their benefits (internet access, mobile telephony, satellite television) or be at the mercy of a third party supplier forced to pay predetermined commercial rates and having little or no say on availability or quality of the service.

Acquiring accurate figures for how much nations spend on their space programmes or even the cost of individual missions is problematic. Definition of poverty vary in countries, organisation and over time so measuring and comparing global poverty levels is not straight forward. National space programmes have objectives that are intertwined with national security, geopolitical and economic aspirations.

Essential contributions provided by resources outside the jurisdiction of the Space Programme are not usually included in the costing. Physical security may be provided by the army, the navy is frequently used to assist with capsule recovery after splash-down and educational institutions contributed payload design and development.

Eight of the world’s largest economies. Credit World Economic Forum

Since 2001, as part of the emerging BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), China and India have been regarded as “emerging market”. Today as the world’s 2nd largest economy, China has surely completed the metamorphosis and has now “emerged”.

India, as the 6th largest economy should also now be seen as a developed nation, not as a developing one. India has transitioned from a recipient of international aid to a regional net donor. Despite reports to the contrary, the government of India no longer receives aid from the United Kingdom.

During two years 2018/19 and 2019/20 the UK government’s Department for International Development (DfID) will invest £98m in Indian enterprises to help develop new markets. This “will also help create jobs for UK businesses, and generate a return for the UK.“.

The Department for International Development acknowledges that “India invests more in the UK than in the rest of the EU combined” (downloadable pdf) and recognises that UK’s targeted support in India will “generate a return for Britain by creating new markets for trade and investment”. Thus, UK’s financial contribution to projects in India should not be seen as aid but as a commercial investment.

Besides as the USA, the world’s leading economy and one with a mature space programme has illustrated, eradicating poverty is not a goal it has achieved. Throughout the period of the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo missions, the poverty level in the USA hovered between 10% and 15%.

The number in Poverty and Poverty Rate: 1959 to 2017 for the United States. Credit Soibangla

India’s annual budget for its space programme has been increasing. In 2018 it was $1.3 billion. This excluded the $1.4 billion for the Gaganyaan (Human Spaceflight) programme to be completed by 2022. Despite investing in its space programme since 1962, poverty in India has been on a consistent decline.

India Poverty rate since 1993 based on World Bank $1.99 PPP poverty line. Credit Pkhagah

National Space Programmes can have a reputation for being expensive but the actual investment represents a very small percentage of the national GDP. In 2018, the largest annual budget, around $20 billion, is that in the USA, representing just 0.4% of GDP. India’s annual budget of $1.3 billion is less than 0.1% of its GDP.

Space budget as a share of GDP for selected countries for 2008 and 2013. Credit OECD (pdf)

The international aid India receives has been declining since the beginning of the 21st century as its economy has grown. In parallel, what India gives out in aid has also grown. Regionally, India is now a net donor with commitments of $10 billion towards development projects in Africa, $1 billion toward rebuilding in Afghanistan and $825 million in students from developing nations to study in India.

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Heads of National Space Agencies plenary session – IAC2018. Bremen, Germany.

By Gurbir Dated: January 6, 2019 Leave a Comment

Heads of Space Agencies: Plenary Session IAC2018

This is my recording of the Heads of Space Agency plenary session on 1st October – the first day of the IAC2018. It was not recorded with the intention to publish online. However, here it is unedited – for anyone who may benefit from it.

In Attendance:

  • Dmitry Loskutov in place of Dmitry Rogozin – (Roscosmos)
  • Hiroshi Yamakawa – (JAXA)
  • Johann-Dietrich Woerner – (ESA)
  • Maggie Aderin-Pocock (Moderator – BBC)
  • Jim Bridenstine – (NASA)
  • K. Sivan – (ISRO)
  • Sylvain Laporte – Canadian Space Agency
  • ZHANG Kejian China National Space Administration

Some of my notes below – Timeline (mins:Sec)


04:50    Jan Woerner – ESA  
10:28    K Sivan – ISRO
15:16    Zang Kejian – CNSA (speaking via translator)

26 Launches since Jan 2018
Chang-e-4 Lunar rover before end of year (Relay sat already
launched)
5 More GNSS satellites before the end of year
Willing to collaborate internationally
Social, economic, climate change – support Asian – Asia and African
nations
China joint projects – Brazil, France, ESA, (Chang-e4 Sweden,
Germany, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia)
An announcement of opportunity 10kg payload available for
international partners on the Chang’e6 Sample return mission
CSS will be completed by 2022. Also, welcome international
cooperation on the CSS
Welcome international partners in its growing commercial space
market.
Established “Space Day” in China to encourage the younger generation
25:40 Hiroshi Yamakawa (JAXA)
Hayabusa 2 – Rover Minerva landed on Ryugu.  Lander Mascot (built
by DLR/CNES)
MMX Mission to Mars
Asia Specific Forum – 25th anniversary in Singapore
JAXA welcomes international partners.
The combined budget of all space agencies around the world. 42.5
Billion (21.5=NASA).
30:18 Dmitry Loskutov (Roscosmos)
35:05 Sylvain Laporte Canadian Space Agency

44:10 Jim Bridenstine (NASA)
Hope to get 10k attendance in Washington IAC2019
Lunar gateway – Back to the Moon to stay. Sustainable open architecture open to commercial and international partners. It will also serve as a deep space transport to Mars.

53:10 Q&A

1:18:26 End

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Heads of National Space Agencies Press Conference: IAC2018 Bremen, Germany

By Gurbir Dated: January 2, 2019 Leave a Comment

Heads of Space Agency Press Conference IAC2018

This is my recording of the Heads of Space Agency press conference 1st October – the first day of IAC2018. This video was not initially intended to be published. But here it is unedit – some may find it of interest.

In Attendance:Left to right

  • Dmitry Loskutov in place of Dmitry Rogozin – (Roscosmos)
  • Hiroshi Yamakawa – (JAXA)
  • Johann-Dietrich Woerner – (ESA)
  • Maggie Aderin-Pocock (Moderator – BBC)
  • Jim Bridenstine – (NASA)
  • K. Sivan – (ISRO)
  • Sylvain Laporte – Canadian Space Agency (not present)
  • Zhang Kejian China National Space Administration (not present)

Some notes

Head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin – prevented by sanctions against Russia to travel to Germany. Replaced by Dmitry Loskutov.

Bridenstein:

  • Experiments on ISS from 103 countries
  • Gateway – Open architecture, a fraction of the size of the ISS. is not in LEO so has no radiation protection from the Van Allen Belts
  • Reduced electromagnetic radiation from Earth. May allow new experiments in astrophysics
  • Multiple trips to lunar surface from the Gateway and hence potential for new science experiments on the surface.
  • Question: Is NASA subsidising SpaceX?  Did not deny it outright at the outset.
  • Nasa’s goal is in establishing a capability, lower cost and enhanced innovation. Ultimately more customers for SpaceX not just Nasa and more service providers – not just SpaceX.
  • My question on when the US law that prohibits US/China collaboration in space will end? 
  • Answer: The law expires and is renewed every year. (Left it open ended really). 
  • Question: Is China space programme is too close to Chinese military? Answer: This is a concern for US government and Nasa will do what its government permits it to do 

Sivan

  • Indi ahs no plans for human missions to the Moon.
  • Regarding India cooperating with China on human spaceflight training, he left it open-ended. I think he was aware of the deal for Modi administration was making with Russia (announced a few days later) but could not say anything at this press conference.

Woerner:

  • ESA Astronauts are learning Chinese. Will fly with China in the future but no date yet.

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Full steam ahead for ISRO after a successful GSLV-MK3 launch

By Gurbir Dated: November 15, 2018 Leave a Comment

  • Credit: ISRO

On Wednesday 14th November 2018, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) successfully placed a 3.4-ton communication satellite GSAT-29 in orbit with the third launch (and the second developmental flight) of its heavy launch vehicle – GSLV-Mk3. This is a huge milestone for ISRO. 

This mission was critical for ISRO. Had it not been successful the impact would have had profound on it is immediate and near-term plans. In addition to taking a huge financial hit and loss of morale within the organisation, there would have been additional consequences.

  • ISRO has been building and launching satellites for almost 3 decades. But operational launchers  (PSLV and GSLV-MK2) do not have the capacity to launch heavy (more than 2.5 tons)  satellites. So has outsourced those launches to the European Space Agency’s  Ariane launcher. The successful launch of GSLV-Mk3 D2 mission means that India need not continue to rely on EAS’s Araian.
  • A mission review earlier this year increased the mass of  ISRO’s  Lunar Lander mission Chandrayaan-2. The increased mass is beyond the capacity of a PSLV or a GSLV MK2. The Chandrayaan-2 mission is scheduled for launch in January next year. Without this success, this key mission to the Moon would have been delayed indefinitely.
  • Another casualty could have been the 2022 timeline for the recently announced Human Spaceflight programme, Gaganyaan. In August, India’s Prime Minister announced India to launch a crewed spaceflight from India by 2022.

As a result of this mission, the GSLV MK3 will move from development (with D prefix) to an operational phase (with a C for continuous prefix)  from 2019. 

Geosynchronous Satellite (GSAT-29)  is a communication satellite that will provide high-resolution imagery, radio and digital communication for northern parts of India. Designed to operate for 10 years, the ISRO chairman announced that the launch was so precise, the extra fuel will extend the satellites lifetime to at least 12 years. In the near future, GSAT-29 will be joined by two more similar satellites to support the “Digital India” programme. A more detailed report of GSLV-Mk3-D@ mission from William Graham on Nasaspacflight.com

  • Credit: ISRO
  • Credit: ISRO
  • Credit: ISRO
  • Credit: ISRO
  • Credit: ISRO

If you missed the live stream of the pre-launch, launch and post-launch commentary – its here (all 90 minutes) on youtube.

Credit: ISRO

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